In attempting to place Barack Obama historically in a
presidential ranking, there are many complicating variables that would not
normally be present. I attribute this to the election of Donald Trump to follow
Obama into the White House.
Because Trump is likely to be such an extremist,
irrational and unqualified train- wreck, there are bound to be Obama
accomplishments that are undone. This could include the Affordable Care Act,
the Iran nuclear deal and environmental and financial regulations, to name but
a few.
A second factor that presents a challenge in grading
Barack Obama’s presidency is the Republican obstruction during his two terms.
Never before has a president been faced with opposition so severe, extreme and
absolute. This was evident to such a degree that Republicans actually opposed
their own ideas; the Affordable Care Act being the most obvious example.
Opposition to Obama was a virulent reaction to his being black, well-spoken,
reserved, and thoughtful, with the racism being at the top of the list.
With these qualifications in mind, I have ranked Barack
Obama where I believe is appropriate. I feel that had his successor been
Hillary Clinton, or even a rational Republican (which in 2016 was nearly
impossible to find), this position would be more historically settled. However,
depending on the Trump presidency, and how quickly the pendulum swings back to
sanity in the nation in 2018 and 2020, Obama’s place could rise or fall by a
few slots.
I rank Barack Obama reasonably high, and believe true
historians will as well, for many reasons. However, I would first point out his
most obvious failures, shortfalls and missed opportunities.
Domestically, his weak points can be viewed as a product
of his early tenure timidity, or faith that he could bring Democrats and Republicans
together. This resulted in his providing for inadequate spending to combat the
Great Recession (with too many ineffective tax cuts included), relying on
Congress to lead the way on health insurance reform (Thus succumbing to the
tendencies of men such as Ben Nelson, Max Baucus and Joe Lieberman to
significantly weaken the final product, and Republicans to whip up a frenzy of
misinformation and lies leading to the creation of the Tea Party), and in not
prosecuting anyone on Wall Street for the reckless behavior that enabled the
economic collapse Obama inherited.
On foreign policy, Obama’s greatest failings were in his
too closely adhering to George W. Bush Administration policies on drone strikes
and warrantless wiretapping (I place this in foreign policy due to its
terrorism connection). Obama, also, was sometimes too reasonable with the thugs
and tyrants in the Middle East and Russia. While I will point to this as a
strength, too, drawing lines in the sand (Syria), being too reflective (Russia,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, China) and not recognizing the value of at least showing
the stick more transparently alongside the carrot, allowed the various strong
men in these countries to act without genuine fear of repercussion. Lastly, he,
like most all other experts, underestimated ISIL’s rise.
While peace between Israel and Palestine remains out of
reach, probably further away than it was when Obama took office, I blame this
fully on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli extreme
right, Mahmoud Abbas and the weak and cowardly Palestinian leadership,
Republican intransigence, and AIPAC.
However, Barack Obama’s successes, while some potentially
will be ephemeral, outweigh these weaknesses by a sizable margin, thereby
making him an above average to very good president.
While the world exploded due to the Arab Spring, most
United States connection to this would be longstanding, dating back to
post-World War II. No president could have drastically altered the events that
took place. Egypt was a mess because the Muslim Brotherhood and the military
both refused to govern inclusively. Iraq fell apart due to Bush policies,
Iran’s influence and the Shiite unwillingness to, again, govern inclusively.
While I have mentioned Obama’s failings as to Syria, I also believe he wisely
did not engage more fully. The American people overwhelmingly opposed the boots
on the ground that would have been required, Congress, cowardly, was unwilling
to act in any manner, and the reality within Syria showed that the opposition
to Bashar al-Assad was incredibly fluid and unreliable. Arming militants could
have led to a repeat of the disastrous outcome of arming the Afghani jihadists
of the 1980’s.
As such, I view Obama’s Syria policy as limiting the
quagmire for the U.S. ISIL was technically an already existing threat – a
product of the Iraq War and al Qaeda in Iraq. Iraq itself had no true means of
being a success because of their own leadership. Obama got the U.S. out of the
sinkhole that Iraq had been as best as possible. The same was true in
Afghanistan.
The Obama Administration had clear successes, too. Ties
to India grew by leaps and bounds. The failed Cuba policy was ended, with great
promise for the future. Despite some serious problems with its Rohingya
population, Myanmar gave up a solid measure of its military rule. Al Qaeda was
seriously weakened, including the death of Osama bin Laden. There were no
significant terrorist strikes within U.S. borders. The open hostility and
negative image of the United States internationally, a product of the Bush
Administration’s “Cowboy Diplomacy,” was greatly reversed. And, most
importantly, despite unprecedented political opposition from Republicans and
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Iran Nuclear Agreement was
signed. This deal made the world much safer for the foreseeable future and
possibly bought Iran enough time to moderate when Ayatolluh Khamanei dies,
hopefully soon.
Domestically, the Obama presidency could have been great.
Sadly, due to Obama’s early naiveté that Republicans would be reasonable and
act in the best interests of the nation, combined with those Republicans
intentionally harming the country solely to deny Obama any success, less was
accomplished than was possible. I do not put too much of this upon Obama’s
shoulders.
The Obama Administration was handed the worst economic
disaster since the Great Depression. Unemployment was rising, banks were
becoming insolvent, the auto industry was collapsing, and the country was on
the brink of disaster. Obama’s steady hand provided enough stimulus to stem the
tide. Bailouts to the auto and banking industry, building on what the Bush
Administration was virtually forced to begin to enact, saved millions of jobs
and prevented a complete economic catastrophe.
Once things stabilized, with the help of an engaged and
late-to-the-game, proactive Federal Reserve Bank, unemployment eventually
leveled off and actually achieved near complete employment. Obama’s negotiating
led to a reversal of some (though not enough) of the Bush tax cuts, resulting
in a lessening of income inequality. Towards the end of Obama’s tenure, income
growth began to show real signs of picking up momentum. The Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau was created, greatly reducing the risk of further financial
fraud and protecting the middle and lower classes significantly.
While the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare,”
has produced incredible controversy, and is far from a perfect piece of law,
it’s success is beyond logical question. It did not fully address cost
containment, but it did slow the growth of increases. It allowed for a wide
array of innovation to make care more efficient and effective. Most
importantly, through the insurance exchanges and increased Medicaid enrollment,
30 million additional people received affordable (due to subsidies) health insurance.
The plan also had a substantial impact on income inequality by effectively
granting raises to people in the lower and middle classes via affordable care,
while paying for the care with tax increases on the wealthiest people.
The Affordable Care Act clearly needs tinkering to fix
the various problems that any large piece of legislation can lead to. Sadly,
the potential for repeal by Republicans following the end of the Obama
presidency could undo all these gains and negatively impact tens of millions of
people. This is one key area where Republican success would, sadly, negatively
impact Obama’s legacy. However, judging by early news from the post-Obama
presidency, Republicans appear to have succumbed to the notion of insuring more
people. Though all their alternatives will not actually result in this, the
change in the tone of the conversation is to Obama’s credit. The best hope is
that once Republicans make things worse, the Obama legacy will allow for a
second reversal that restores coverage levels and goes further than the ACA.
While some might argue that President Obama did not do
enough for the environment – increased oil production domestically, allowing
fracking – the truth is his administration did protect vast expanses of the
nation and made major efforts to improve auto fuel efficiencies, address
climate change globally and shift the country to alternative energy sources.
The Obama Administration was essentially scandal-free. In
fact, the only real scandal during Obama’s term in office was Republican
attempts to manufacture scandals through countless irresponsible, fraudulent
and shameful investigations into, frankly, nothing.
Some might place blame on Barack Obama for the increased
national divisiveness. It is more appropriate to place almost no blame on the
president. Any disparagement of President Obama for the rancor that grew
during, and as a result of, his presidency would be the equivalent of blaming
Lincoln for the Civil War. The truth is, as is often the case throughout
history, a reaction to economic difficulty, often leads to nationalist excess,
rightwing extremism and overt acts of hostility. The rise of the Tea Party, the
extent to which the Republican Party became a rightwing, fanatical platform and
the eventual rise of Trumpism, is not a reflection on the Obama Administration,
or any failings on its part, but the product on an uninformed electorate and
misguided rage.
Overall, Barack Obama merits the rating I have given him.
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act with an insufficient replacement, or a
rejection of the Iran Nuclear Accords, could drop his rating. But the United
States was blessed by a thoughtful, responsible, dynamic, and good man, who had
a plan of success for the nation. It was not fully attained, and could be
undone in many respects. For now, Barack Obama stands as this nation’s #11
president.
